Weak Fundamentals Combined with the Upcoming National Day Holiday, Tin Prices May Maintain Fluctuating Trend [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes September 29, 2025

On the macro front last week, US Fed officials were relatively cautious about further interest rate cuts, believing that current interest rates were in a good equilibrium and that no further easing was necessary. Regarding US economic data, although the job market remained close to the maximum employment target, inflation issues persisted, requiring the US Fed to be very cautious when removing restrictive monetary policies. Overall in the domestic tin ore market, supply-side disruptions were evident, with tin ore supply tightening in major producing areas such as Yunnan. Some smelters remained shut down for maintenance, providing some support for prices. Demand side, the solder industry, the main consumer of tin, saw a significant reduction in orders due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Downstream purchasing was relatively cautious, and high prices significantly suppressed actual consumption. While emerging sectors such as AI computing power increases and growth in PV installations drove some tin consumption, their current contribution scale remained small and insufficient to offset the consumption decline in traditional sectors. In the spot market, trading was sluggish, with most downstream and end-user enterprises choosing to wait and see, suspending purchase activities. Overall, tin prices were expected to continue hovering at highs this week. Investors needed to monitor domestic and overseas policy changes and supply-demand dynamics, and operate cautiously.